In a new modelling study, GenPath Africa colleagues Jennica Poongavanan, Cheryl Baxter and Tulio de Oliveira from Stellenbosch University, along with international collaborators, have identified which African airports are most likely to receive travellers carrying the dengue virus. Their research provides a roadmap for health officials to better allocate limited resources to prevent and manage potential outbreaks.

What is this publication about?

Researchers used 2019 air travel data from nearly 200 commercial airports to track how viraemic travellers might move into and across 54 African countries. By combining these travel patterns with a “P index” (which measures how suitable a local climate is for mosquito-led transmission) and population density, the team created a novel model to pinpoint where and when the risk of importing dengue is highest. The study specifically looked at viral introductions from high-incidence countries in Asia and Latin America, as well as regional spread within Africa.

Why is this important?

Dengue is a significant but often overlooked public health threat in Africa because it is frequently misdiagnosed as malaria or other febrile illnesses. This study reveals that risk is not uniform across the continent: while eastern Africa faces a high risk of importation from Asia, western African countries are more likely to receive the virus from within their own region. Crucially, the model shows that receiving infected travellers does not automatically lead to an outbreak; for local transmission to take root, the arrival of the virus must align with specific months when local environmental conditions are right for mosquitoes to thrive.

How can this make a difference?

By identifying high-risk "hotspots" like major airports in Kenya, Egypt, Mauritius, Senegal, and Uganda, this research allows health departments to implement more efficient, data-driven surveillance strategies. Instead of monitoring all entries year-round, officials can focus their efforts on peak transmission months to detect imported cases early. Ultimately, these insights help regions strengthen their preparedness and develop targeted public health interventions to curb the spread of dengue in an increasingly interconnected world.

Jenicca Poongavanan, José Lourenço, Joseph L-H Tsui, Vittoria Colizza, Yajna Ramphal, Cheryl Baxter, Moritz U G Kraemer, Marcel Dunaiski, Tulio de Oliveira, Houriiyah Tegally, "Dengue virus importation risks in Africa: a modelling study." The Lancet Planetary Health, 2024; 8(12): e1043–54. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00214-7.