Publication Highlight: A decade of dengue disease burden in Africa (2013–2023) - a systematic review

In a new study by our GenPath Africa colleagues Tulio de Oliveira, Cheryl Baxter and Eduan Wilkinson (Stellenbosch University), researchers analysed a decade of dengue disease burden in Africa and warn that dengue cases could increase significantly in the future.

What is this publication about?

In this systematic review, researchers examined how dengue virus (DENV) disease burden has spread across Africa between 2013 and 2023. Using data from 87 studies across 25 countries, as well as information from academic sources, the World Health Organization for Africa (WHO AFRO), and the African Centre for Disease Control (Africa CDC), researchers found that around 200,000 suspected cases, 90,000 confirmed cases, and 900 deaths were reported over the past ten years. The study explored when and where dengue occurs, how severe it can be, which virus types are circulating, and used advanced statistical models to predict how disease burden may evolve in the future.

Why is this important?

This review provides the first comprehensive analysis of how dengue disease burden has spread and changed in Africa over time. Researchers found a significant rise in dengue cases – most notably, a fivefold increase in West Africa - and confirmed that all four dengue virus types are now circulating, raising the risk of severe illness. Although reported deaths remain low (less than 1%), researchers predict dengue cases will keep rising, especially in West Africa, where they could grow by as much as 55% per year.

How can this make a difference?

These findings are critical for informing and strengthening public health strategies throughout Africa. Knowing when and where outbreaks are most likely - such as October to December in West Africa or during the rainy seasons in East Africa – will allow public health officials to implement timely interventions. Additionally, this study also reveals gaps in disease reporting and testing, thus highlighting the need for stronger surveillance systems. As dengue cases continues to spread, these insights will be essential for guiding healthcare policy and resource allocation, and can help regions strengthen preparedness and implement effective measures to curb transmission.

Gaspary O. Mwanyika, Monika Moir, Abdualmoniem O. Musa, Jenicca Poongavanan, Graeme Dor, Eduan Wilkinson, Cheryl Baxter, Tulio de Oliveira, Houriiyah Tegally, “A decade of dengue disease burden in Africa (2013–2023): a systematic review.” Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, Vol 67: 102897, October 2025 (available online 25 August 2925). doi:10.1016/j.tmaid.2025.102897.